Research Article | | Peer-Reviewed

Analysis of Lethality Linked to the COVID-19 Epidemic in Senegal from March to August 2020

Received: 7 December 2023     Accepted: 2 January 2024     Published: 23 January 2024
Views:       Downloads:
Abstract

Objective: Analyze the lethality linked to the COVID-19 epidemic in Senegal in 2020. Methodology: This was a time series analysis of COVID-19 during the period from March 02 to August 31, 2020. The study population was people tested by RT-PCR for COVID-19. The data was aggregated and published on the COVID-19 Senegal site. The data collected was analyzed using R software, for description and modeling with ARIMA and Prophet. Results: This study showed that the total number of COVID-19 cases recorded during the period studied was 13,611, a median of 3,740 was recorded on June 1, 2020; on average, 4810 cases were registered. New confirmed cases had a median of 79 and an average of 73.9 new cases recorded. 87.4 cases of death on average recorded with a median of 43. On average 19.3 serious cases were recorded with a median of 15. On average, 3940 cases were transmitted locally. March recorded the highest positivity rate at 13.56% with a sharp decline to 8.49% in August. A fatality rate of 5.71 per 1000 inhabitants in March and 20.87 in August 2020. The reproduction rate was 1.96 at the start of the state of emergency on March 23, 2020; this rate increased to 1.11 at the end of our study, on August 31, 2020. Conclusion: Predicted and actual data had shown a continuous record of new confirmed cases and deaths until the end of 2020. With no change, despite the measures put in place, the hope is that the vaccine can bring a solution.

Published in World Journal of Public Health (Volume 9, Issue 1)
DOI 10.11648/j.wjph.20240901.15
Page(s) 34-42
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

COVID-19, Confirmed Cases, Deaths, Transmission, Senegal

References
[1] He F, Deng Y, Li W. Coronavirus disease 2019: What we know? J Med Virol. Jul 2020; 92(7): 719-25.
[2] Sun J, He WT, Wang L, Lai A, Ji X, Zhai X, et al. COVID-19: Epidemiology, Evolution, and Cross-Disciplinary Perspectives. Trends Mol Med. May 2020; 26(5): 483-95.
[3] Mohamed K, Rzymski P, Islam MS, Makuku R, Mushtaq A, et al. COVID-19 vaccinations: The unknowns, challenges, and hopes. J Med Virol. 2022 Apr; 94(4): 1336-1349.
[4] Li H, Liu SM, Yu XH, Tang SL, Tang CK. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): current status and future perspectives. Int J Antimicrob Agents. 2020 May; 55(5): 105951.
[5] Singhal T. A Review of Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19). Indian J Pediatr. Apr 2020; 87(4): 281-6.
[6] Wang Y, Wang Y, Chen Y, Qin Q. Unique epidemiological and clinical features of the emerging 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) involves special control measures. J Med Virol. Jun 2020; 92(6): 568-76.
[7] Hall V, Foulkes S, Insalata F, Kirwan P, et al. Protection against SARS-CoV-2 after COVID-19 Vaccination and Previous Infection. N Engl J Med. 2022 Mar 31; 386(13): 1207-1220.
[8] Zhao Z, Li X, Liu F, Zhu G, Ma C, Wang L. Prediction of the COVID-19 spread in African countries and implications for prevention and control: A case study in South Africa, Egypt, Algeria, Nigeria, Senegal and Kenya. Sci Total Environ. August 2020; 729: 138959.
[9] Liu J, Liao X, Qian S, Yuan J, Wang F, Liu Y, et al. Community Transmission of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2, Shenzhen, China, 2020. Emerg Infect Dis [Internet]. 2020 Jun [cited 2020 Oct 6]; 26(6). Availableat http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0239_article.htm
[10] Hadj Hassine I. COVID-19 vaccines and variants of concern: A review. Rev Med Virol. 2022 Jul; 32(4): e2313.
[11] Teslya A, Pham TM, Godijk NG, Kretzschmar ME, Bootsma MCJ, Rozhnova G. Impact of self-imposed prevention measures and short-term government-imposed social distancing on mitigating and delaying a COVID-19 epidemic: A modeling study. Guo Y, editor. PLOS Med. 2020 Jul 21; 17(7): e1003166.
[12] Ouassou H, Kharchoufa L, Bouhrim M, Daoudi NE, Imtara H, Bencheikh N, et al. The Pathogenesis of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): Evaluation and Prevention. J Immunol Res. July 10, 2020; 2020: 1-7.
[13] Gaffney AW, Himmelstein D, Bor D, McCormick D, Woolhandler S. Home Sick with Coronavirus Symptoms: a National Study, April–May 2020. J Gen Intern Med. Nov 2020; 35(11): 3409-12.
[14] Artaud-Macari E, Le Bouar G, Maris J, Ventilatory management of SARS-CoV-2 acute respiratory failure. Rev Mal Respir. 2023 Nov-Dec; 40(9-10): 751-767.
[15] Sun K, Chen J, Viboud C. Early epidemiological analysis of the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak based on crowdsourced data: a population-level observational study. Lancet Digit Health. Apr 2020; 2(4): e201-8.
[16] Elmaleh Y, Garnier M. Management of severe forms of COVID-19 in intensive care. Rev Prat. 2022 May; 72(5): 511-516.
[17] He Y, Luo J, Yang J, Song J, Wei L, Ma W. Value of Viral Nucleic Acid in Sputum and Feces and Specific IgM/IgG in Serum for the Diagnosis of Coronavirus Disease 2019. Front Cell Infect Microbiol. Aug 6, 2020; 10: 445.
[18] Kaufman HW, Niles JK, Kroll MH, Bi C, Holick MF. SARS-CoV-2 positivity rates associated with circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels. Reddy SV, editor. PLOS ONE. 2020 Sep 17; 15(9): e0239252.
[19] Jin Y, Yang H, Ji W, Wu W, Chen S, Zhang W, et al. Virology, Epidemiology, Pathogenesis, and Control of COVID-19. Viruses. 2020 Mar 27; 12(4): 372.
[20] Official site of the World Health Organization [Internet]. [cited 2020 Oct 2]. Available from: https://www.who.int/en [Accessed April 2020].
[21] Liu Y, Eggo RM, Kucharski AJ. Secondary attack rate and superspreading events for SARS-CoV-2. The Lancet. Mar 2020; 395(10227): e47.
[22] World Health Organization, “Public health surveillance in the context of COVID-19, Provisional guidance”. Available from: https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/WHO-2019-nCoV-SurveillanceGuidance-2022.2 [Accessed August 7, 2022].
[23] World Health Organization. (‎2021), “Critical preparedness, readiness and response actions for COVID-19: interim guidance, 27 May 2021”. Available from: https://iris.who.int/handle/10665/341520 [Accessed June 06, 2021].
[24] Republic of Senegal, “President's statement on the COVID-19 pandemic situation. Senegal, March 2020”. Available from: https://www.sec.gouv.sn [Accessed April 11, 2020].
[25] Deng Y, Liu W, Liu K, Fang YY, Shang J, Zhou L, et al. Clinical characteristics of fatal and recovered cases of coronavirus disease 2019 in Wuhan, China: a retrospective study. Chin Med J (Engl). 2020 Jun 5; 133(11): 1261-7.
[26] Pan F, Yang L, Li Y, Liang B, Li L, Ye T, et al. Factors associated with death outcome in patients with severe coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19): a case-control study. Int J Med Sci. 2020; 17(9): 1281-92.
[27] Jung S, Akhmetzhanov AR, Hayashi K, Linton NM, Yang Y, Yuan B, et al. Real-Time Estimate of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases. J Clin Med. 2020 Feb 14; 9(2): 523.
[28] World Health Organization, “Recommendations to Member States to improve hand hygiene practices to help prevent the transmission of the COVID-19 virus”. Available from: https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/recommendations-to-member-states-to-improve-hand-hygiene-practices-to-help-prevent-the-transmission-of-the-COVID-19-virus [Accessed March 21, 2020].
[29] World Health Organization, “COVID-19: Surveillance, case investigation and epidemiological protocols”. Available from: https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/the-first-few-x-cases-and-contacts-(-ffx)-investigation-protocol-for-coronavirus-disease-2019-(-COVID-19)-version-2.2 [Accessed March 21, 2020].
[30] Infos Samsah Savs, “Conceptual framework of access to care and health”. Available from: http://infos-samsah-savs.eklablog.com/cadre-conceptuel-de-l-acces-aux-soins-et-a-la-sante-a127703214 [Accessed May 09, 2020].
[31] Republic of Senegal. National Agency for Statistics and Demography, Available from: https://satisfaction.ansd.sn [Accessed June 11, 2020].
[32] Republic of Senegal, “General presentation”. Available from: https://www.sec.gouv.sn/general-presentation [Accessed April 02, 2020].
[33] Digital Health Strategic Plan (PSSD) 2018-2023 of Senegal. Ministry of Health and Social Action.
[34] INRAE, “National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and the Environment”. Available from: https://www.inrae.fr/ [Accessed April 21, 2021].
[35] INRAE, “Modeling in practice in the management of an epidemic”. Available from: https://www.inrae.fr/actualites/modelisation-pratique-gestion-dune-epidemie [Accessed June 02, 2020].
[36] Ba MF, Tine JAD et al. Study of the factors associated with the acceptability of care for simple cases of COVID-19 at home in Senegal, 2020.
[37] Republic of Senegal. Report of the National Multisectoral Intra-Action Review (RIA) of the fight against the pandemic linked to the new coronavirus (COVID-19) in Senegal. National Epidemic Management Committee. 15 - 19 September 2020.
[38] World Health Organization, “COVID-19 situation in the Region - total reports”. Available from: https://www.emro.who.int/health-topics/corona-virus/index.html [Accessed October 17, 2023].
[39] Ecological analysis of COVID-19: study of the socio-economic and environmental determinants associated with the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 at the global level. May 04, 2020.
[40] UN brief: COVID-19 and universal health coverage. October 2020.
[41] Singh A, Manoncourt E, Stachenko S, Rice M and Agbeve E. COVID-19: a mix of social determinants of health and an intensification of existing health inequalities. International Union for Health Promotion and Education. July 2020; 368.
[42] COVID-19 – What we know so far about... the social determinants of health. May 24, 2020.
[43] Republic of Senegal. Contingency plan to ensure continued availability and use of RMNCAH services in the context of COVID-19. Ministry of Health and Social Action. May 2020.
[44] Republic of Senegal. Stakeholder Mobilization Plan (PMPP) of the COVID-19P Intervention Project 173,838. Ministry of Health and Social Action. May 2020.
[45] United Nations Senegal. United Nations System COVID-19 Preparedness and Response Plan in Senegal. April to December 2020.
[46] Diouf I, Bousso A, Sonko I. Managing the COVID-19 pandemic in Senegal. Disaster Medicine-Collective Emergencies 2020; 4(3): 217–222.
[47] World Health Organization, “Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic”. Available from:
[48] https://www.who.int/europe/emergencies/situations/COVID-19 [Accessed February 18, 2021].
[49] UNDP. Socio-economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Senegal. June 2020.
[50] Peeling RW, Wedderburn CJ, Garcia PJ, Boeras D, Fongwen N, Nkengasong J, et al. Serology testing in the COVID-19 pandemic response. Lancet Infect Dis. Sep 2020; 20(9): e245-9.
[51] Kolifarhood G, Aghaali M, Saadati HM, Taherpour N, Izadi N, Nazari SSH. Epidemiological and Clinical Aspects of COVID-19; a Narrative Review.: 9.
[52] Bruinen de Bruin Y, Lequarre AS, McCourt J, Clevestig P, Pigazzani F, Zare Jeddi M, et al. Initial impacts of global risk mitigation measures taken during the combating of the COVID-19 pandemic. Saf Sci. Aug 2020; 128: 104773.
[53] Battegay M, Kuehl R, Tschudin-Sutter S, Hirsch HH, Widmer AF, Neher RA. 2019-novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): estimating the case fatality rate – a word of caution. Swiss Med Wkly [Internet]. 2020 Feb 7 [cited 2020 Nov 15]. Available from: https://doi.org/10.4414/smw.2020.20203 [Accessed April 22, 2020].
[54] Rene Migliani. The COVID-19 pandemic, specificities in Africa InHerodotus2021/4 (No. 183), pages 85 to 97.
[55] DO Kpamy, S. Keita, B. Yattassaye, M. Camara, M. Barry, et al. The COVID-19 pandemic in Guinea: clinical and therapeutic aspects and factors related to death in treatment sites. Published in Black African Medicine 6710 - October 2020 - pages 509-517.
[56] Girault C. COVID-19 and acute respiratory failure: particularities of ventilatory care. Rev Malad Respir Actual. 2022 Dec; 14(2): 2S483-2S491.
Cite This Article
  • APA Style

    Bondha, A. C., Tine, J. A. D. (2024). Analysis of Lethality Linked to the COVID-19 Epidemic in Senegal from March to August 2020. World Journal of Public Health, 9(1), 34-42. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.wjph.20240901.15

    Copy | Download

    ACS Style

    Bondha, A. C.; Tine, J. A. D. Analysis of Lethality Linked to the COVID-19 Epidemic in Senegal from March to August 2020. World J. Public Health 2024, 9(1), 34-42. doi: 10.11648/j.wjph.20240901.15

    Copy | Download

    AMA Style

    Bondha AC, Tine JAD. Analysis of Lethality Linked to the COVID-19 Epidemic in Senegal from March to August 2020. World J Public Health. 2024;9(1):34-42. doi: 10.11648/j.wjph.20240901.15

    Copy | Download

  • @article{10.11648/j.wjph.20240901.15,
      author = {Alyette Carêne Bondha and Jean Augustin Diegane Tine},
      title = {Analysis of Lethality Linked to the COVID-19 Epidemic in Senegal from March to August 2020},
      journal = {World Journal of Public Health},
      volume = {9},
      number = {1},
      pages = {34-42},
      doi = {10.11648/j.wjph.20240901.15},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.wjph.20240901.15},
      eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.wjph.20240901.15},
      abstract = {Objective: Analyze the lethality linked to the COVID-19 epidemic in Senegal in 2020. Methodology: This was a time series analysis of COVID-19 during the period from March 02 to August 31, 2020. The study population was people tested by RT-PCR for COVID-19. The data was aggregated and published on the COVID-19 Senegal site. The data collected was analyzed using R software, for description and modeling with ARIMA and Prophet. Results: This study showed that the total number of COVID-19 cases recorded during the period studied was 13,611, a median of 3,740 was recorded on June 1, 2020; on average, 4810 cases were registered. New confirmed cases had a median of 79 and an average of 73.9 new cases recorded. 87.4 cases of death on average recorded with a median of 43. On average 19.3 serious cases were recorded with a median of 15. On average, 3940 cases were transmitted locally. March recorded the highest positivity rate at 13.56% with a sharp decline to 8.49% in August. A fatality rate of 5.71 per 1000 inhabitants in March and 20.87 in August 2020. The reproduction rate was 1.96 at the start of the state of emergency on March 23, 2020; this rate increased to 1.11 at the end of our study, on August 31, 2020. Conclusion: Predicted and actual data had shown a continuous record of new confirmed cases and deaths until the end of 2020. With no change, despite the measures put in place, the hope is that the vaccine can bring a solution.
    },
     year = {2024}
    }
    

    Copy | Download

  • TY  - JOUR
    T1  - Analysis of Lethality Linked to the COVID-19 Epidemic in Senegal from March to August 2020
    AU  - Alyette Carêne Bondha
    AU  - Jean Augustin Diegane Tine
    Y1  - 2024/01/23
    PY  - 2024
    N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.wjph.20240901.15
    DO  - 10.11648/j.wjph.20240901.15
    T2  - World Journal of Public Health
    JF  - World Journal of Public Health
    JO  - World Journal of Public Health
    SP  - 34
    EP  - 42
    PB  - Science Publishing Group
    SN  - 2637-6059
    UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.wjph.20240901.15
    AB  - Objective: Analyze the lethality linked to the COVID-19 epidemic in Senegal in 2020. Methodology: This was a time series analysis of COVID-19 during the period from March 02 to August 31, 2020. The study population was people tested by RT-PCR for COVID-19. The data was aggregated and published on the COVID-19 Senegal site. The data collected was analyzed using R software, for description and modeling with ARIMA and Prophet. Results: This study showed that the total number of COVID-19 cases recorded during the period studied was 13,611, a median of 3,740 was recorded on June 1, 2020; on average, 4810 cases were registered. New confirmed cases had a median of 79 and an average of 73.9 new cases recorded. 87.4 cases of death on average recorded with a median of 43. On average 19.3 serious cases were recorded with a median of 15. On average, 3940 cases were transmitted locally. March recorded the highest positivity rate at 13.56% with a sharp decline to 8.49% in August. A fatality rate of 5.71 per 1000 inhabitants in March and 20.87 in August 2020. The reproduction rate was 1.96 at the start of the state of emergency on March 23, 2020; this rate increased to 1.11 at the end of our study, on August 31, 2020. Conclusion: Predicted and actual data had shown a continuous record of new confirmed cases and deaths until the end of 2020. With no change, despite the measures put in place, the hope is that the vaccine can bring a solution.
    
    VL  - 9
    IS  - 1
    ER  - 

    Copy | Download

Author Information
  • Institute of Public Health and Development (ISED), Cheikh Anta Diop University, Dakar, Senegal

  • Institute of Public Health and Development (ISED), Cheikh Anta Diop University, Dakar, Senegal

  • Sections